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[Centaur]

NEO asteroid 2012 DA14 is expected to pass 30,000 to 40,000 km from Earth’s center on 2013 FEB 15. Its peak brightness may be between magnitude 7 and 8.

Italian Professor Aldo Vitagliano gave me some data on the 45-meter rock to put into my copy of his Solex numerical integration program. With its output and my self-made graphics software, I've created a view of the orbits of the asteroid and Earth from far north of the ecliptic plane. Do understand that the data is preliminary and subject to adjustment. Nevertheless, it's obvious that the orbit switches from one with a longer major axis than Earth's to a shorter one after close passage. The diagram can be seen at: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

[dayzedankonfused]

Will we be able to see this with the naked eye??? hopefully it will be clear. That would be a pretty cool birthday present to see considering my bday is feb 14th...

[Centaur]

Dec 18, 2012 8:54:41 GMT -6 dayzedankonfused said:

Will we be able to see this with the naked eye??? hopefully it will be clear. That would be a pretty cool birthday present to see considering my bday is feb 14th...

Sorry, no. It will pass the Earth on the other side from us during our daytime. Someone near the Indian Ocean with binoculars might be able to spot the relatively fast moving object. It will likely be eclipsed by the Earth's shadow during a portion of its passage over the night side of the Earth.

[dayzedankonfused]

That's a shame. It would of been super cool to try and see. Never seen one pass by with the naked eye or using binoculars. Are asteroids even possible to see fly by with the naked eye, or would it be moving to fast? I have only watched the video's of them off the slooh space camera site.

[Centaur]

Dec 18, 2012 18:20:43 GMT -6 dayzedankonfused said:

That's a shame. It would of been super cool to try and see. Never seen one pass by with the naked eye or using binoculars. Are asteroids even possible to see fly by with the naked eye, or would it be moving to fast? I have only watched the video's of them off the slooh space camera site.

Asteroid Vesta can often be be seen by naked eye when at opposition from the Sun. Pallas, Ceres and Iris may occasionally become bright enough for observers with very sharp eyes in dark skies. Of course those are not NEOs and do not appear to move rapidly. NEOs are rarely visible by naked eye, unless we count meteors as being very tiny NEOs. 2012 DA14 will not appear to be moving nearly as swiftly as a meteor, but much faster than is the case for a main belt asteroid.

[Centaur]

Dec 18, 2012 8:54:41 GMT -6 dayzedankonfused said:

Will we be able to see this with the naked eye???

To further answer your question, I've drawn a map that plots the locations on Earth where NEO 2012 DA14 will appear in the zenith as it zooms by our planet: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

Book your cruise to Sumatra now while ship cabins are still available.

I’ll remind everyone that predictions may be adjusted a bit during the coming weeks, but the little asteroid will not slam into the Earth.

[dayzedankonfused]

Thank you for this information. Is the site you mention on the posts a site that you make. if so then good job. It was very interesting looking at it and reading it. I like the graphs and images that were on it. I spent the nice cold clear night observing....nice to finally have some clear skies after cloudy skies for days. #weaksnowstorm lol

[Centaur]

Dec 22, 2012 2:52:01 GMT -6 dayzedankonfused said:

Thank you for this information. Is the site you mention on the posts a site that you make. if so then good job. It was very interesting looking at it and reading it. I like the graphs and images that were on it.

You’re welcome, dayz. Indeed, I create all of the graphics and data on my website with my self-made software. I’m glad you’re appreciative.

[Centaur]

Asteroid 2012 DA14 has been recovered and new parameters have been determined. Last night I e-mailed Italian professor Aldo Vitagliano, the creator of the Solex astronomical numerical integration program. This morning he sent me the newly updated vectors of the 45-meter asteroid for inclusion in Solex.

His new nominal solution indicates that the closest approach to the Earth’s center will occur at exactly the same time as the previous best estimate: 2013 FEB 15 at 19:25:49 TD (19:24:42 UT). However, the distance to the Earth’s center at that time is now estimated to be 34,112 km rather than the earlier estimate of 34,373 km. The point on Earth where the asteroid will be in the zenith at that time is in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra at E 96.595° & S 6.238°. The previous estimate was E 97.153° & S 6.360°.

In both cases, the estimated greatest brilliance for the point on Earth closest to the asteroid is magnitude +7.0. Interestingly, both the current and previous estimates for Perth, Australia at the moment of closest approach to the Earth’s center are magnitude +6.9. Even though Perth will be a little further from the asteroid, from Perth’s perspective the asteroid will be nearer to opposition from the Sun which increases the illumination.

Aldo notes that while the new parameters are hardly different from the previous ones, the uncertainties have been dramatically reduced. He says that the chance of an impact with Earth in 2040 is now zero. He indicates that another close approach without impact will occur in 2046.

I've updated my related graphics at: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

[Centaur]

Aldo Vitagliano, the creator of the Solex astronomical numerical integration program, has sent me new data for 45-meter asteroid 2012 DA14 that will pass close to Earth on 2013 FEB 15-16. With that I have updated my two related graphics: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

[dayzedankonfused]

I guess it brought a buddy with.

[Chicago Astronomer - Astro Joe]

I would not be at all surprised that the main asteroids is part of a swarm.

Dig your bunkers deep.

[Centaur]

Feb 15, 2013 6:54:47 GMT -6 dayzedankonfused said:

I guess it brought a buddy with.

The two objects are unrelated. They were moving in opposite directions relative to Earth. The somewhat close timings of the confrontations with Earth were coincidental.

[Paulie pchris00]

I'm probably going to be clouded out for 2012 DA14, but I think I'll give it a shot anyway. It will be lower than 11th magnitude by the time it's dark, and even if the sky stays clear long enough, I'll have to fight some light pollution, but it will be a great story if I somehow manage to track this rock.