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[Chicago Astronomer - Astro Joe]

Look out: Asteroid's near-miss may be home run for scientists

A University of Michigan-led research team has discovered that for the first time in history, scientists will be able to observe how the Earth's gravity will disrupt a massive asteroid's spin.

Scientists predict a near-miss when Asteroid 99942 Apophis passes Earth in 2029. An asteroid flies this close to the planet only once every 1,300 years. The chance to study it will help scientists deal with the object should it threaten collision with Earth.

Only about three Earth diameters will separate Apophis and Earth when the 400-meter asteroid hurtles by Earth's gravity, which will twist the object into a complex wobbling rotation. Such an occurrence has never been witnessed but could yield important clues to the interior of the sphere, according to a paper entitled, "Abrupt alteration of the spin state of asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) during its 2029 Earth flyby," accepted for publication in the journal Icarus.

More here: www.physorg.com/news5839.html

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Should be an interesting observation.

Gripe alert...

Let's correct a mis-statement. If something is a "Near-Miss", it actually means that it did hit and just almost did not. A Near-hit is more of a correct discription of the would be event, as the object came ever so close to hitting something, but missed.

Ok...I feel better.

[Centaur]

admin said:

Let's correct a mis-statement. If something is a "Near-Miss", it actually means that it did hit and just almost did not. A Near-hit is more of a correct discription of the would be event, as the object came ever so close to hitting something, but missed.

Thanks for the article, Joe. Fascinating. I'll try to stick around for the event. It is a reminder about how asteroids or comets can pass near Earth. The danger of an actual hit is ever present.

I've heard your ''correction" from others, but respectfully disagree. Near hit would be a nonsense term. Any type of hit is a hit, not a miss. A near miss is a miss, not a hit. It would occur when an object happened to pass near a target, but missed it. The term near miss is quite commonly used and clearly understood by all.

There are no dictionary entries for near hit. Below are some dictionary definitions of near miss. Perhaps most interesting is the explanation of the WW2 origin of the term:

near miss
n.
1. A narrowly avoided collision involving two or more aircraft, ships, boats, or motor vehicles.
2. A missile strike that is extremely close to but not directly on target.
3. Something that fails by a very narrow margin: Her campaign for the Senate was a near miss.


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[Blend of near thing, and miss.]

[Download Now or Buy the Book]
Source: The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition
Copyright © 2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company.
Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.


near miss

A narrowly avoided mishap; also, an attempt that falls just short of success. For example, It was a near miss for that truck, since the driver had crossed the center strip into on-coming traffic, or Her horse kept having a near miss in every race, so she decided to sell it. This expression originated during World War II, when it signified a bomb exploding in the water near enough to a ship to damage its hull. Soon afterward it acquired its present meanings.



Source: The American Heritage® Dictionary of Idioms by Christine Ammer.
Copyright © 1997 by The Christine Ammer 1992 Trust. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company.


near miss

n : an accidental collision that is narrowly avoided


Source: WordNet ® 2.0, © 2003 Princeton University

[Chicago Astronomer - Astro Joe]

NASA sets schedule for handling asteroid threat

NASA has outlined what it could do, and in what time frame, in case a quarter-mile-wide asteroid named Apophis is on a course to slam into Earth in the year 2036. The timetable was released by the B612 Foundation, a group that is pressing NASA and other government agencies to do more to head off threats from near-Earth objects.

The plan runs like this: Eight years from now, if there's still a chance of a collision in 2036, NASA would start drawing up plans to put a probe on the space rock or in orbit around it in 2019. Measurements sent back from the probe would characterize Apophis' course to an accuracy of mere yards (meters) by the year 2020.

If those readings still could not rule out a strike in 2036, NASA would try to deflect the asteroid into a non-threatening course in the 2024-2028 time frame by firing an impactor at it — using this year's Deep Impact comet-blasting probe as a model. Experts would start planning for the "Son of Deep Impact" mission even before they knew whether or not it was needed.

Full story here: msnbc.msn.com/id/9871982

And here is an ephermeris and hard data on Apophis:

newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:Apophis;main

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[Chicago Astronomer - Astro Joe]

Zero Chance Of Asteroid Hitting Earth In 2029 Says Russian Astronomer

Moscow (RIA Novosti) Nov 03, 2006
The possibility of a large asteroid colliding with Earth in 2029 is zero, Russia's top astronomer said Thursday. The near-earth asteroid Apophis, discovered in mid-2004, caused a brief period of alarm in December 2004, when scientists calculated that there was as much as a 1/37 probability of it colliding with the earth.

Observations soon reduced the probability to zero, but fears of a catastrophic collision have remained a topic of discussion among non-experts, particularly on internet forums.

Boris Shustov, the head of the Astronomy Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said the asteroid will fly past Earth at a distance of 38,000-40,000 km.

"The error cannot be more than 10,000 km," he said.

However, the astronomer said Earth will face a more serious threat in 2036, when Apophis, named after the ancient Egyptian spirit of evil and destruction, will again pass close to Earth.

But Shustov said the impact probability in 2036 "will be low."

Source: www.spacedaily.com/reports/Zero_Chance_Of_Asteroid_Hitting_Earth_In_2029_Says_Russian_Astronomer_999.html

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I'm still wearing my hard hat...