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[Al Degutis]

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY:
MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS:
NEAR OR PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:
MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:
FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *AUGUST* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

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Good luck. I'll be poking my head outside tonight.

[Al Degutis]

Additional info:


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This is from Joe Rao, here in New York; adjust timing of events based on your location/time zone, etc:


Back on Sunday evening at 9:33 p.m. EDT, an M-2 flare erupted on the Sun. Just over 54 hours later, this Wednesday morning, at 5:48 a.m. EDT, the subatomic material associated with this flare arrived at the Earth's magnetic poles, producing a geomagnetic storm. According the Space Environmental Laboratory in Colorado, the onset of this storm ranked as G3 or greater on the NOAA scale, which ranks as "Strong to Extreme." Such conditions are often conducive to producing spectacular auroral displays.

Unfortunately . . . all this is transpiring during the daytime for us!

However . . . about 16 hours after the Sunday flare . . . at 1:27 p.m. EDT on Monday afternoon . . . an even stronger M-5 flare erupted from the same sunspot complex that produced the M-2. This would seem to imply that the next potential "shock" of subatomic material may be arriving sometime during the evening hours tonight . . . after nightfall. So tonight everyone should be on high alert for auroral activity. The timing-out of such events always carries a bit of uncertainty with it . . . but it would be wise to periodically check the sky, especially toward the north during the overnight hours tonight.

All this is rather unusual, considering that we are currently near minimum activity in the current solar cycle.

-- Joe Rao
Skyway, Inc.
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